Take it with a grain of salt, but 538 has switched to believe Democrats will win the Senate in the midterms
It is far from a big win, but they now project a 51-49 split in favor of the Dems. And, as always, it's a projection based on polling data, it could still be wrong.
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"Gavin Newsom plants flag on climate, spurring 2024 chatter"
It will genuinely be a shock if he does anything BUT run against Biden in 2024.
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Reddit poster dispels explains the Supreme Court and what the Democrats would have to do to stop the Roe v Wade being overturned
Found courtesy of my friend Bill:
So I’ve seen a number of comments blaming Democrats for this that say it’s their fault that Roe v Wade wasn’t “codified into law.” This shows a misunderstanding of how the US legal system works, so here’s a quick primer.
Role of the Supreme Court
At the very inception of the USA the Supreme Court took it upon themselves to be the interpreter of the US Constitution and the arbiter of whether laws passed within the US abide by the Constitution in the Marbury v Madison ruling. This has been an accepted role of the Court ever since, and falls within the notion of checks and balances. The Court acts as a check on Congress and the states to ensure that all laws passed follow the Constitution. For example, if Congress passed a law saying that no one could say bad things about the president, the Court would rule that this is not a law because it violates the 1st Amendment. Or if Congress passed a law saying that there are no more elections, they get to stay in Congress for life, the Supreme Court would overrule that law by saying “no the Constitution says elections every 2 years.” These Supreme Court rulings have the force of law.
So then can’t the Supreme Court just say whatever they want?
Well not quite but sort of. Supreme Court has a policy called stare decisis which means that they generally should respect previous decisions that have been made. Technically it’s up to them though. Theoretically another check on the power of the Supreme Court is that the President appoints them, so the people have a say in the Supreme Court based on who they elect as president. Finally, another way that the people can overrule the Court is by passing Constitutional Amendments — actually changing the most important document in the USA. However this is incredibly hard. Not only do 2/3 of BOTH houses of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) have to agree but then 3/4 of the State Legislatures have to pass it as well.
So how does this apply to Roe and abortion?
So Roe v Wade was a Supreme Court decision that interpreted the Constitution as saying that women have the right to an abortion within certain limits. Remember, this has the force of law, and that only the Supreme Court can interpret the Constitution. If Republicans in Mississippi passed a law saying “there’s no right to abortion” the Supreme Court would say “nope we decided that and stare decisis says we stick with that decision”. And this happened time and time again. The restrictions changed somewhat but basically they continued to agree with their previous ruling. Except that’s not what happened THIS TIME. This time the Court said “you know we were wrong back then, changed our minds.”
But what about Democrats in Congress?
So like I said before, if Democrats passed a law last week saying “women have a right to an abortion”, then the Supreme Court could still say “nope that’s not in the Constitution.” If Democrats pass one tomorrow, the Court could still say the same thing. The only way to change it without the Court is to pass a Constitutional Amendment, which is impossible in today’s America. This is why republicans have been laser focused on the Supreme Court. Hope this has been helpful!
EDIT: This is not to say that passing a law protecting abortion today would be not allowed — that’s not what Dobbs says — but highlighting the fact that no matter what law is passed (except a Constitutional amendment) the Supreme Court could (and based on today’s ruling would) overrule it.
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John Fetterman had a moment this past campaign, I will be curious to see where his political career takes him
"Getting on Twitter every morning's like starting the day with a dog-turd-and-motor-oil smoothie," Fetterman told contributor Mark Whitaker. "It's horrible. You gotta form that phalanx and push back against that. And I do that in a way that mixes kind of humor and mockery with cold, hard facts."
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